Apple will be holding an event in less than a week that will see the introduction of some new devices. The rumors have been deep and plentiful, and as it stands right now the general consensus from across the web is that it will be the announcement of new iPhones, probably at two different sizes, and the Apple iWatch. But I don’t want to talk about phones right now – I am more interested in the watch and when it will be released.
Let’s be blunt. If you are a huge Apple fan and are frothing at the mouth over the iWatch, you are going to be disappointed. The original iPhone from Apple was announced January 9, 2007. That iPhone did not hit the market until June of 2007. The original iPad was announced January 27, 2010. That iPad was not released until April. Now consider every mobile based product Apple has released in the last few years.What’s my point? That the original iPhone and the original iPad did not have a mass proliferation of leaks before they launched, yet it seems that all of Apple’s products leak before they are announced these days. How many iWatch leaks have there been? Not any that have been more than rumor.
The main point that I want to make here is this: don’t think you are going to get an iWatch soon. I would suggest that you don’t even hope for an iWatch before Christmas. We haven’t seen any hardware leaks of the iWatch yet and know very little about it. The main reason this is the case is because Apple has not started mass production on the iWatch yet. Starting mass production on a device like this and getting it to the point where there are enough units ready for launch takes some time. You could make the argument that getting mass production up faster is easier now thanks to upgrades in technology but to truly capitalize on the holiday season, this product needs to release by Thanksgiving. Apple loves to have the media show off huge lines in front of their stores during product launches. A low number of produced watches could help create that reality we have all seen in the past, but I don’t think Apple could get enough out in 2 months to even justify a small launch.
So let’s take another look back on the past. New products that launch from Apple are very secretive. That is because they are brand new and are not running production yet. That’s been the case in the past with the initial iPhone and the iPad. The secrecy dies in new generations because Apple does not want to give you 6 months to not buy the old iDevice. They shorten the window between announcement and release to protect current stock sales. That’s why all the leaks exist.
Ultimately I have no idea what will happen on the 9th. I suspect Apple will announce iWatch so that people know to be ready and not to spend all of their holiday budget on gifts or other smart watches. Apple may even go so far as to have preorders available before Christmas so the gift can be given before it is in hand. However, based on history, there is no way this device will be out before the end of the year.
Check back in tomorrow when I explain why the iWatch will be a failure.
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